lundi 28 octobre 2013

Part 2: real estate, Global Warming and building cost

Specifically the Global Warming has some strong effects on the building cost. It is obvious too the changes have already started, the dates given by the GIEC (International Climate Experts Group) are simply an acceleration of a process already underway.

And these effects will be included in the definition of the raw materials and the topography of the areas where housing will have to be erected. For example the former need to have new properties in resistance and flexibility. Moreover the conception of heat protected homes (avoiding the costly polluted air-conditioning systems) to generate a natural warm family space for the cold winters is the consequence of the renewed mission for the architects and urbanists. 

Finally the cost might depend on the increasingly radical changes in the landscape. Detecting drinking water (an annual deficit of 2 billion cubic meters by 2050 is already stated in the South of France) but also anticipating rising water lead us to some dramatic measures such as the depopulation of some risky zones and the necessity to consolidate fields and living areas from these new dangers.

It is to be sure too ecological and environmental impacts have never been taken into account by the officials and the administration. It is noted unfortunately housing has never been the major preoccupations of the politics in the 70/80 decades, housing for them being to get a space to sleep and eat !

This remark is to be extended to all the western countries, the goal of each government having been to erect some vast living functional building simply divided with simple access to warm water and electricty. This conception of the city is outmoded today and need to be renewed regarding what we discussed about the environment including a rejuvinated harmony between citizens through the streets, the infrastructures and the administrative services. This is plainly a new vision of the city in the future being to be thought and this thinking should be based on the capacity for each one to buy for himself his own space.

At this stage of the lecture we need to go back to the structure of the price comprising the cost for the building and the mergin/profit for the builder/seller. 

The construction cost in the Eurozone for a 3 rooms apartment in 2013 is around 160,000€ and 180,000€ including the field’s price for an half of it. If i take into account the imperative to get an added value per year of 5%-8% you will have an asset around between 280,000 and 320,000 Euros in 2020 : I mean in this stement the real estate is perceived as a valuable asset depending not on the market trends but fundamentally from the need to be housed regarding a limited number of housing in a defined area and an unlimited number of people needing to live there (i take a standard constant rising of the growth rate per year as an average of 12 children for 1000 inhabitants).

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